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Tuesday, August 15, 2006 

Vorbometer Predictions For AML Round 5

Filed under: Premier League

My return to amateur subspace predictions last week saw me going 2-1. I picked BU over FnD and ReDS over SFA while missing Warlords over SkyRakers. Looks like they’re going to miss JackMove more that I first thought.

The MVP of the round was an easy choice to make. When a beer subbed in for BU (for some scrub called a terrier) they were losing 7-2. Beer then went on a tear, going 4-0 with 5 forced reps to lead his team back and take the win 12-8. The LVP comes from the same game and is shared between the four FnD subs. Argome (0-2 and 3 wasted reps in 3 minutes), Over Kill (0-1 after 2 minutes) and Burnt Special (0-2 and 2 wasted reps after 3 minutes) threw away a five kill lead and the chance to go atop the AML standings. Only equinocs (1-2 after 20 minutes) managed to show any offense.

So here’s my week 5 predictions for the Amateurs of Premier League, which this week is brought to you by True Saints. Amen.


Fly-NDie (2-2) vs Warlords (2-2)
$$$ Game of the Week $$$

WL cruised to an easy win over SkyRakers while – as you already know – FnD threw away a 5 kill lead in losing to BU. If last Sunday’s game taught us anything it’s that FnD’s starters are head and shoulders above their bench. FnD’s first mistake was subbing out Uni, who is their best player by far, for equinocs. Their second mistake – and biggest - was subbing in Over Kill for Zash when Zash hit zero reps on his last life. Over Kill was over-matched, over-awed, over-rated and lots of other words that start with over-. He choked and died out easily and the team just collapsed from there.

There are teams that will play their bench and not mind if they lose a few games along the way as long as they qualify for the playoffs. ReDS in IML look like they’re going to do that this season. The problem with running a squad like that in AML is that there are no playoffs, just the top two squads moving onto the finals. If this is the way FnD want to do things (and as they are a feeder squad to FlyNDeath it’s no bad idea) they must be very careful against which squads and at what times they play their bench. Depending on other results the winner of this game could go into second place, if FnD do the same thing here as they did against BU they could drop another game and drop out of the top two.

I can’t see them falling into the same trap again though. I think they’ll let their starters play out the game. I like FnD’s top 4 better than the active 4 Warlords will start (Sacred Remedy being inactive has been a huge loss for them) and will take the win here.Expect WL to keep it close though and that will be incentive enough for FnD cap Burnt Special to keep his starters in and himself on the bench.

Vorbometer: 12-9 Fly-NDie
Key players: Uni (FnD), North Star (WL)
Watch out for: Argome, Over Kill and Burnt Special staying on the bench.


ReDS-AML (2-2) vs SkyRakers (2-2)

SkyRakers are now 0-2 without JackMove and seem to be in freefall. They aren’t that bad, but they haven’t had anyone step up to take the place of belt. On Sunday the only player who could really fill that role – GeminiGirl – managed to go 1-3, although she had no support from the other three slots. SR really needs a good showing and a good game to get them back on track, but I can’t see it happening this Sunday.

After a tepid performance against BU in round 3 ReDS showed what they can do when they start their best on Sunday with a comfortable win over SFA. As long as they keep showing their best ReDS will keep winning and I can’t see a still shell-shocked SR changing that.

Vorbometer: 12-3 ReDS-AML
Key players: Dwath (ReDS), GeminiGirl (SR)
Watch out for: Caerbannog’s AML squad rankings on the AML forums. A lot better than these.


BENCHERS UNITE (3-1) vs StarFire Acadamy (1-3)

So what to make of BU? As far as I can tell this squad didn’t practice together at all between their round 3 and round 4 games. A squad who’s two caps seem to have gone MIA. They warmed up for their match on Sunday by playing a bit of 2v2 and some Chaos Pub. Their best player, a beer, turned up a couple of minutes after the game was called and didn’t warm up at all. So it’s not really surprising that they found themselves 7-2 down, but who would of bet on them coming back to win? And who will bet against them winning next week? Maybe they should never practice. It might hurt their game.

SFA are a similar squad to FnD. They are SFE’s feeder squad and will play as many people possible in every game. There are two differences between the squads however. SFE won’t play their best four and sub in four benchers, they will mix up their starting lines and subs from game-to-game. The other difference is that SFE have a deeper and more experienced roster than FnD so can get away with playing seven or eight players per game. OK, so right now FnD have a better record than SFA, but I’ve never let the facts get in the way of my predictions before and I’m not going to start now.

I can’t see SFE winning this Sunday though, no matter who their starters and subs are. I can’t see any team beating BU right now. And when I say any team I mean it. Prospect, Assassins, Real Madrid, Miami Heat, Denver Broncos, The Mean Machine. Nothing this squad will do can surprise me.

Vorbometer: 12-7 BENCHERS UNITE
Key players: a beer (BU), Foxtrot (SFA)
Watch out for: This is BU. Be prepared for anything.



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