Vorbometer Predictions For AML Round 4
Filed under: Premier League
After missing last week's round due to the lack of game results, let me take you back to what I wrote in my round 2 predictions:
Turns out I was wrong - JackMove didn't have an AML ranking and has been kicked out of the league. As there's seemingly no deliberate move on the part of either JackMove or SkyRakers to cheat and it was a genuine mistake JackMove has not been banned and has been given the option to join a Pro or IML squad while SR will replay their first two games in the make-up round - although from what kawika has said on the AML forums they just might take the losses and play out the rest of the season.
The upshot of this is that the AML playing field is truly level. On any given Sunday any AML squad could win or lose and the rest of the season promises to very exciting as the squads battle it out for the top two spots and a place in the finals series. So here's how the Vorbometer sees round 4, which this week is brought to you by Farney, the little midget inside my head.
Fly-NDie (2-1) vs BENCHERS UNITE (2-1)
$$$ match of the week $$$
A good example of the parity in AML is this game. FnD lost to ReDS in round 1 and didn't look very good, but since then they've beaten SFA 12-3 and the beltless SkyRakers 12-2. BU meanwhile started off with a comfortable 12-2 win over Warlords - which was 4v2 through most of the game, lost to the belt-led SR 12-5 and last week looked very strong taking out ReDS 12-4. I've kept the loss in BU's record as right now it's not clear what SR are going to do, BU could be 3-0 right now or 2-0 with one game to play in the make-up round.
This will be the first big match of the season as the winner of this game will take the outright lead in the standings. The teams have very different playing styles. With FnD it's teamwork. They practice a lot, plus are a true feeder squad to Fly-NDeath so get some good IML-level scrims through the week. With BU it comes down to individual skill. This is a squad that rarely practices as a team, but do have the experience to get by that at gametime. So far in five games BU have put out five different line up's and their playing style isn't that obvious yet, but they look like being the most aggressive squad in the league, specially when they start their weasels (a beer and/or darq).
I can see this game going the same way as the BU/ReDS game. BU will start slowly as FnD's superior teamwork will hold them off, but as the game goes on BU's more aggressive style will start to take over and the kills will come late.
Vorbometer: 12-6 BECHERS UNITE
Key players: Uni (FnD), a beer (BU)
Watch out for: Entertainment
Reds-AML (1-2) vs StarFire Academy (1-2)
After an impressive opening win ReDS are coming off two tough losses while SFA are going in the different direction with a comfortable win over Warlords last weekend after two big losses (one of them to SkyRakers so they're in the same situation as BU).
The key to this game will be who shows for ReDS. When they can put out their strongest four (Super Bunny, Papa T, Army and Dwath) they are a tough squad to beat, but without them they can get into trouble, specially when they need to give extended playing time to their true Warzone pilots - like Farlig against BU. Meanwhile SFA bring the deepest roster in AML and some excellent teamwork. I'm going to go with ReDS in this one as I'd expect their top line to show after a couple of weeks with no-shows and lag problems, but it's going to be a close one.
Vorbometer: 12-9 ReDS
Key players: Super Bunny (ReDS), LuGG (SFA)
Watch out for: Entertainment
SkyRakers (2-1) vs Warlords (1-2)
So let's look at the post-JackMove SkyRakers. They still have GeminiGirl, who can be effective at this level. Kawika is a very strong chaos pub player, but has never transferred that ability to Premier League. Crudgiver can get it done if he's active and Pharaoh's Legacy is one of those total newbies who practices and practices at 4v4, going 0-3 more often than not, but is starting to pick up some skill with playing time in the new AML.
What they lack now is a real line leader, someone to push the opposition back, force out the targets and make the clutch kills. At this level of competition JackMove could do that in his sleep, but I can't see anyone on their roster who could take his place. The good news for SkyRakers is that the loss of JackMove doesn't kill their chances, it just brings them down to the level of the rest of the AML squads. If they can get over the problems of the last two weeks they can still be a competitive squad this season.
Right now the most important person for them is squad cap kawika. I'm sure SkyRakers thought they were going to cruise into the finals behind JackMove. Now the rest of the squad has to step up and it's up to kawika to get them to do this. I don't know him personally so I can't say if he's up to the job, but from what I've read on the forums it sounds like he has the trust of his squaddie and SR are going to bounce back. So I'm going for the upset here over a still dodgy looking Warlords. Maybe I'm just feeling guilty for starting the whole JackMoveGate ball rolling.
Vorbometer: 12-8 SkyRakers
Key players: kawika (SR), Fuzzy (WL)
Watch out for: Entertainment
After missing last week's round due to the lack of game results, let me take you back to what I wrote in my round 2 predictions:
SkyRakers are a real throwback to the old AML in that they're a one man squad. They just let their aliased ringer do all the work while the rest of the squad tries not do die out. That description isn't entirely fair as the aliased ringer isn't really aliased or a ringer at all. JackMove (Belt) has been on SR for a long time, but I am surprised that he got a ranking that let's him play in AML - and considering I'm on the AML rankings panel that's saying something
Turns out I was wrong - JackMove didn't have an AML ranking and has been kicked out of the league. As there's seemingly no deliberate move on the part of either JackMove or SkyRakers to cheat and it was a genuine mistake JackMove has not been banned and has been given the option to join a Pro or IML squad while SR will replay their first two games in the make-up round - although from what kawika has said on the AML forums they just might take the losses and play out the rest of the season.
The upshot of this is that the AML playing field is truly level. On any given Sunday any AML squad could win or lose and the rest of the season promises to very exciting as the squads battle it out for the top two spots and a place in the finals series. So here's how the Vorbometer sees round 4, which this week is brought to you by Farney, the little midget inside my head.
$$$ match of the week $$$
A good example of the parity in AML is this game. FnD lost to ReDS in round 1 and didn't look very good, but since then they've beaten SFA 12-3 and the beltless SkyRakers 12-2. BU meanwhile started off with a comfortable 12-2 win over Warlords - which was 4v2 through most of the game, lost to the belt-led SR 12-5 and last week looked very strong taking out ReDS 12-4. I've kept the loss in BU's record as right now it's not clear what SR are going to do, BU could be 3-0 right now or 2-0 with one game to play in the make-up round.
This will be the first big match of the season as the winner of this game will take the outright lead in the standings. The teams have very different playing styles. With FnD it's teamwork. They practice a lot, plus are a true feeder squad to Fly-NDeath so get some good IML-level scrims through the week. With BU it comes down to individual skill. This is a squad that rarely practices as a team, but do have the experience to get by that at gametime. So far in five games BU have put out five different line up's and their playing style isn't that obvious yet, but they look like being the most aggressive squad in the league, specially when they start their weasels (a beer and/or darq).
I can see this game going the same way as the BU/ReDS game. BU will start slowly as FnD's superior teamwork will hold them off, but as the game goes on BU's more aggressive style will start to take over and the kills will come late.
Vorbometer: 12-6 BECHERS UNITE
Key players: Uni (FnD), a beer (BU)
Watch out for: Entertainment
After an impressive opening win ReDS are coming off two tough losses while SFA are going in the different direction with a comfortable win over Warlords last weekend after two big losses (one of them to SkyRakers so they're in the same situation as BU).
The key to this game will be who shows for ReDS. When they can put out their strongest four (Super Bunny, Papa T, Army and Dwath) they are a tough squad to beat, but without them they can get into trouble, specially when they need to give extended playing time to their true Warzone pilots - like Farlig against BU. Meanwhile SFA bring the deepest roster in AML and some excellent teamwork. I'm going to go with ReDS in this one as I'd expect their top line to show after a couple of weeks with no-shows and lag problems, but it's going to be a close one.
Vorbometer: 12-9 ReDS
Key players: Super Bunny (ReDS), LuGG (SFA)
Watch out for: Entertainment
So let's look at the post-JackMove SkyRakers. They still have GeminiGirl, who can be effective at this level. Kawika is a very strong chaos pub player, but has never transferred that ability to Premier League. Crudgiver can get it done if he's active and Pharaoh's Legacy is one of those total newbies who practices and practices at 4v4, going 0-3 more often than not, but is starting to pick up some skill with playing time in the new AML.
What they lack now is a real line leader, someone to push the opposition back, force out the targets and make the clutch kills. At this level of competition JackMove could do that in his sleep, but I can't see anyone on their roster who could take his place. The good news for SkyRakers is that the loss of JackMove doesn't kill their chances, it just brings them down to the level of the rest of the AML squads. If they can get over the problems of the last two weeks they can still be a competitive squad this season.
Right now the most important person for them is squad cap kawika. I'm sure SkyRakers thought they were going to cruise into the finals behind JackMove. Now the rest of the squad has to step up and it's up to kawika to get them to do this. I don't know him personally so I can't say if he's up to the job, but from what I've read on the forums it sounds like he has the trust of his squaddie and SR are going to bounce back. So I'm going for the upset here over a still dodgy looking Warlords. Maybe I'm just feeling guilty for starting the whole JackMoveGate ball rolling.
Vorbometer: 12-8 SkyRakers
Key players: kawika (SR), Fuzzy (WL)
Watch out for: Entertainment
