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Tuesday, July 25, 2006 

AML Round 2 Predictions

Filed under: Premier League

As promised last week, here's my predictions for round 2 of AML. My IML predicts should be up in the next couple of days and if I have enough time I may also slap together something for Pro.

I'm pretty much predicting blind here as I've only seen one game in AML so far this season. Maybe I should bring back the Blindometer, it worked for me when I was banned. Still, if a deep knowledge in the squads and the player base was a requirement for doing predictions then I'd never do any. Ever. The game I saw was pretty worthless as an indicator anyway as it was the BU vs Warlords game last Sunday where WL only showed three and played most of the game with two after freakmonger lagged out.

The MVP of round 1 was SkyRakers' JackMove who went 6-2 with 2 KO's, 2 assists and 8 forced reps in their 12-5 win over StarFire Academy. It's hard to pick out an LVP of the round without MR ratings, but looking at the logs I would have to pick Burnt Special (FnD) who subbed in for Deuce Deuce then died out nine minutes later going 0-2 with a wasted rep.

So here's the return of the Vorbometer to AML, which this week is brought to you by the Vader Sessions:


Fly-NDie (0-1) vs StarFire Academy (0-1)

Both these squads are coming off losses last week. FnD going down to ReDS was less of a surprise than how easily SFA were handled by SkyRakers. FnD are going to be lead on the field by Sagum. The question is can he get the support from the rest of his squad? Against ReDS the answer was no. Sagum went 3-3 in the game, the other four FnD'ers who played combined for three kills. If Editor gets active that will help them but their #3 and #4 slots look weak and that's going to keep them out of the top two (there's no playoffs this season in AML. All squads play each other three times then the top two move onto the three game championship series).

SFA on paper look like they should cruise into a top two spot. Divide and H.A.M are two players that should be able to thrive in the new AML and should get good support from a deep roster. The problem seems to be activity. H.A.M did show to the game, and managed to go 0-3, although Worker beat him to the LVP by dieing out first. There's so many SFE practicing - and they can't all be from the IML roster- I'm surprised that they didn't get a good showing.

All this makes the game hard to call. If the best of each squad shows then SFA should win, but if we get the same kind of showing as last Sunday then I'd favour FnD more. I'd be surprised to see two bad SFA performances in a row so I'm going to pick them in a squeaker

Vorbometer: 12-10 StarFire Academy
Key players: H.A.M (SFA), Sagum (FnD)
Watch out for: H.A.M grabbing the MVP and making up for last week's 0-3.


ReDS-AML (1-0) vs Warlords (0-1)

ReDS looked good in their win over FnD - I didn't actually see them, just read the log, but 'ReDS read good in their win over FnD' sounds stupid. They have three good starters in Super Bunny (who dropped down from ReDS IML), Papa T and Army and the rest of the roster should be able to handle keeping the #4 slot alive.

You already know what happened to Warlords. I think that they were the first victim of the new scheduling rules. WL have always liked to play games late, but BU are a Euro team. The bad news for WL is that this Sunday's game will also be played at 5pm EST. Even with a full showing ReDS would be a tough task to break down, another showing like last Sunday and Warlords would be wiped out inside ten minutes. An 0-2 start wouldn't be as disastrous as it would be in IML or Pro with the schedule this season in AML, but the pre-season favourites of most people are looking a little dodgy right now.

Vorbometer: 12-4 ReDS
Key players: Super Bunny (ReDS), Sacred Remedy (WL)
Watch out for: Anyone on Warlords actually showing.


SkyRakers (1-0) vs BENCHERS UNITE (1-0)

This should be that match of the round as it's the only one that features two teams coming off wins in round 1. It's hard to measure BU though as their match against WL didn't really show anything. BU were the most active of the AML squads in the run up to the roster lock and they do have some strong names signed up. The question against them is have they played enough together to compete with the big squads in AML? BU could be one of those squads who get better through the season as the player's get used to each other.

SkyRakers are a real throwback to the old AML in that they're a one man squad. They just let their aliased ringer do all the work while the rest of the squad tries not do die out. That description isn't entirely fair as the aliased ringer isn't really aliased or a ringer at all. JackMove (Belt) has been on SR for a long time, but I am surprised that he got a ranking that let's him play in AML - and considering I'm on the AML rankings panel that's saying something.

I think SkyRakers' season could be the opposite of BENCHERS UNITE's. They should get a lot of big wins early in the season before the rest of the squads find them out and realise that if they ignore JackMove and focus on the other three slots SR are an easy squad to beat. Of course if all the AML squads are reading this then SkyRakers won't win another game this season. That's the kind of power I wield.

Vorbometer: 12-8 SkyRakers
Key players: JackMove (SR), 1st (BU)
Watch out for: A lot of posts in a couple of weeks on the AML forums asking how JackMove got an AML rating.



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